Manhattan Real Estate Market Report Q1 2026 | Katie Keate Johnson, Decode NYC
Decode NYC · Katie Keate Johnson
Manhattan Real Estate
Market Report Q1 2026
A plain-English breakdown of what the numbers actually mean — and where the opportunities are hiding.
Marketwide Overview
The Headline Numbers
Overall contracts signed dipped slightly, but prices are up and inventory is flooding in. Here's the top-line picture — and why the average number can be misleading.
Contracts Signed
2,432
▼ 3.07% vs. prior year
Average Sale Price
$2.64M
▲ 6.85% vs. prior year
Avg Price Per Sq Ft
$1,704
▲ 3.15% vs. prior year
New Listings
4,366
▲ 49.21% vs. prior quarter
Dollar Volume
$6.4B
▲ 1.75% vs. prior year
Days on Market
141
▼ 4.78% vs. prior year
Year-Over-Year Change by Segment
Contracts signed vs. average price — the divergence tells the real story.
By Segment
Where the Market Is Splitting
Not all of Manhattan is moving the same way. New development and luxury are surging while resale inventory builds and prices soften.
New Development
Avg Price: $5.43M
Contracts Signed
368
▲ 5.44% YoY
Avg Price Change
+22.76%
vs. prior year
PPSF
$2,447
▲ 9.37% YoY
Dollar Volume
$2B
▲ 20.79% YoY
Luxury ($4M+)
Avg Price: $9.59M
Contracts Signed
362
▲ 8.06% YoY
Avg Price Change
+9.18%
vs. prior quarter
PPSF
$2,882
▲ 4.06% YoY
Dollar Volume
$3.5B
▲ 5.57% YoY
Resale Condo
Avg Price: $2.78M
Contracts Signed
672
▼ 8.94% YoY
Avg Price Change
-3.42%
vs. prior year
New Listings
1,568
▲ 63.67% QoQ
PPSF
$1,671
▼ 1.80% YoY
Resale Co-op
Avg Price: $1.55M
Contracts Signed
1,246
▼ 4.67% YoY
Days on Market
132
▼ 9.45% YoY
New Listings
2,041
▲ 52.31% QoQ
PPSF
$1,079
▼ 0.40% YoY
At a Glance
Segment Comparison
All four segments side by side — so you can see exactly where the divergence is happening.
| Metric | New Dev | Luxury $4M+ | Resale Condo | Resale Co-op |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg Price | $5.43M | $9.59M | $2.78M | $1.55M |
| Avg Price (YoY) | ▲ 22.76% | ▲ 1.20% | ▼ 3.42% | ▼ 3.85% |
| Contracts Signed (YoY) | ▲ 5.44% | ▲ 8.06% | ▼ 8.94% | ▼ 4.67% |
| Avg PPSF | $2,447 | $2,882 | $1,671 | $1,079 |
| New Listings (QoQ) | ▲ 14.29% | ▲ 34.37% | ▲ 63.67% | ▲ 52.31% |
| Days on Market | 193 days | 185 days | 137 days | 132 days |
Katie's Take
5 Things Worth Knowing
What the numbers don't say on their own — and what they mean if you're thinking about buying or selling in Manhattan right now.
01 ·
The headline average is misleading
The marketwide average price is up 10% — which sounds like a hot seller's market. But contracts are down and inventory is surging. The average is being pulled up by new development and luxury sales. The resale market tells a different story.
02 ·
New development prices are exploding
Average new dev prices jumped 33% quarter-over-quarter and 23% year-over-year, hitting $5.43M. This is where serious wealth is concentrating — and it's pulling the marketwide average up with it.
03 ·
Inventory is flooding in faster than buyers
New listings surged 50–64% across resale segments in a single quarter — but contracts are falling. That gap between supply coming on and demand absorbing it is the most buyer-friendly dynamic we've seen in years.
04 ·
Resale condos are quietly softening
Resale condo prices are down 3.42% year-over-year, with price per square foot also declining. For buyers who've been priced out of this segment, this is a window — and it's flying under the radar.
05 ·
Co-ops are moving faster even as prices dip
Days on market for co-ops dropped nearly 10% year-over-year, even as prices softened slightly. If you can navigate the board process, there's real value on the table right now — especially for buyers coming from Brooklyn.
Breaking News
The New Pied-à-Terre Tax
On April 15, 2026, Mayor Mamdani and Governor Hochul announced NYC's first-ever pied-à-terre tax. Here's what it means for buyers at the $5M+ level.
What Was Announced
Annual surcharge on second homes valued above $5M
The proposed tax applies to condos, co-ops, and 1–3 family homes where the owner's primary residence is outside NYC. It would not apply to primary residences or units rented to full-time tenants. The plan is projected to generate at least $500M/year. It still requires state legislature approval before becoming law.
What Buyers at This Level Already Pay at Closing
| Cost Item | Rate | On a $5M Purchase | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mansion Tax | 2.25% | $112,500 | Buyer pays; applies to all residential $1M+ |
| Mortgage Recording Tax | 1.925% | ~$57,750 | On loan amount; condos only (co-ops exempt) |
| NYC Transfer Tax | 1.425% | $71,250 | Typically seller-paid; often negotiated |
| NYS Transfer Tax | 0.65% | $32,500 | Properties $3M+ |
| Title Insurance + Legal | ~0.5–0.6% | ~$30,000 | Varies by deal |
| Total Est. Buyer Closing Costs | ~4–6% | ~$200,000–$300,000 | Before proposed annual surcharge |
The Bottom Line
A $5M second-home buyer in NYC already faces $200K+ in one-time closing costs. The proposed pied-à-terre surcharge would add an estimated $25,000–$50,000 every year simply for not making NYC their primary home. For ultra-luxury buyers ($20M+), that annual bill could exceed $200,000. Whether the legislation passes — and how the market responds — will be a defining story for 2026.
Ready to make sense of all this?
Whether you're actively searching or just keeping an eye on the market, I'd love to talk through what these numbers mean for your situation specifically.
Let's Connect
Katie Keate Johnson · Decode NYC
804-389-8451 · katie@decodenyc.com